OPINION
January 26, 2007
Posted to the web January 26, 2007

RECENT events in the West African country of Guinea have highlighted how, sometimes, bad governance on the continent is more a question of leaders willingly allowing themselves to become prisoners of a kleptocracy than it is of a lack of competence or state management skills and capacity. Twenty-two years of a pauperising reign by President Lansana Conte have climaxed with the launch by Guinean union leaders of a general strike that has paralysed the country for the past two weeks.

Infuriated by Conte's policies and his personal involvement in the release of two of his closest allies, who were arrested on charges of embezzlement, union leaders are now asking the president to simply step down.

The least that can be said is that they have a point.

Endowed with vast deposits of precious minerals, Guinea is, however, the victim of the so-called "mineral curse" that affects many mineral-rich countries.

It is a curse that has been compounded by the emergence of a political class that is very adept at using state channels and mechanisms for self-enrichment.

Guinea is the world's leading exporter of bauxite, an ore from which alumina is produced.

Copper, gold and diamonds are also mined there.

But economic indicators are in the red. Inflation rates over the past decade have hovered constantly around 30% and have never been tackled by leaders, who are not at all preoccupied with economic performance or the daily lot of the population.

Gilles Yabi, the International Crisis Group's west African analyst, says that the price of a sack of rice -- the country's staple food -- is the main component of the local consumer price index and is used to measure the impact of inflation rates on household spending.

The average price of a 50kg bag of rice is $26, while the net average salary of a civil servant stands at $70.

"Once the purchase of a bag of rice has been secured and transport money set aside for the remainder of the month, only then may other priorities be taken into account," says Yabi. "This is the situation prevailing on the ground."

Meanwhile, Conte and his cronies have maintained -- through an intricate web of state monopoly -- tight control over all the lucrative sectors of the national economy, Yabi says.

The manufacturing, import, export and telecommunications industries, to name just a few, are all in the hands of members of the president's clique.

They have ensured, just as in many African oil-producing countries, that the bauxite industry in particular -- the country's top foreign exchange earner -- works as an "economic enclave" in the national economy, maintaining a veil of secrecy over its contribution to Guinea's gross domestic product.

And as has happened with other kleptomaniac African regimes before, no threat whatsoever to this state money-making business is tolerated.

Thus Conte's lack of hesitation last week, despite his advanced state of illness, to go to Conakry's central prison to have Mamadou Sylla -- a businessman and close friend arrested on fraud and embezzlement charges -- released.

The strike that was sparked by Sylla's release is unprecedented in its scale and could signal the start of the downfall of Conte's regime. The brutal reaction of the national army, which since Monday has killed more than 40 demonstrators across the country, shows the government is slowly losing control of the situation.

True, the strike will not last forever. The army is gearing up to repress, bloodily if needed, any future demonstrations, and it is unlikely that an increasingly hungry Guinean population will sustain its push for Conte to step down.

With no certainty over what the near future holds, many observers feel that failure by the government to find a quick solution or establish a constructive dialogue with the unionists and the political opposition could spur high-ranking army officers to step in and oust Conte.

The coming days will prove crucial and will determine whether Conte, who has survived many previous attempts to oust him, is on his way out or stays in power.

But Yabi reckons that whoever takes over from Conte -- if such a scenario unfolds -- should concentrate on abolishing a system that has heaped such misery on a rich country. No durable and beneficial change will occur in Guinea until its leaders accept that they must escape the rut of kleptocracy and dedicate the country's lifeblood to an unprecedented effort of national rebuilding.

John Kaninda
Johannesburg
Business Day (Johannesburg)